Filipino couples’ family size preferences are increasingly aligned, but many are unable to achieve their desired number of children, according to a new PIDS study.

Filipinos are now having fewer children than needed to replace the population, according to a new study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).

The study found that total fertility has declined from around four children in 1993 to about 1.8 by 2022 for both men and women — placing the country below the level needed to sustain population size over time.

While the drop mirrors global trends, researchers say many Filipino couples are not achieving the number of children they want.

The findings are based on the study “Do men matter in fertility outcomes? Evidence from spousal dynamics in the Philippines” by PIDS researchers Tania Dew Perez and Dr. Michael Abrigo. 

Similar fertility trends for men and women

Using three decades of data from the Philippine National Demographic and Health Survey, the researchers examined fertility patterns for both sexes.

Men tend to have children later and over a wider age range than women. Historically, male fertility rates were slightly higher. 

But over time, male and female fertility patterns have converged, with both declining to similar levels by 2022.

This suggests that fertility outcomes are shaped by common demographic and socioeconomic forces affecting households as a whole. 

The researchers suggest that policies based on women’s data still capture national trends, but excluding men may overlook important dynamics when designing family planning and social programs. 

Gaps between desired and actual family size

Despite increasing alignment in fertility preferences, differences between intended and actual family size persist.

Among poorer households, families often end up having more children than they intend, reflecting continued unmet need for contraception and economic vulnerability.

Among wealthier households, the pattern is reversed. Couples consistently have fewer children than they say they want, even with better access to services.

The poorest households still average between 2.5 and 2.9 children, while the wealthiest average between 1.2 and 1.5. In Metro Manila, fertility among women has fallen to just above one child on average.

These outcomes point to different constraints across income groups — from limited access to reproductive health services among lower-income families to work-family trade-offs among higher-income households.

Employment, housing, and time constraints

The study highlights several factors that may influence couples’ ability to realize their fertility preferences, including employment conditions, housing arrangements, childcare availability, and daily commute times.

Long commutes and high housing costs in urban areas may reduce the time and resources available for child-rearing, while career interruptions associated with motherhood can discourage planned births among working women.

“The Philippines’ chronic transportation crisis is deeply intertwined with housing problems,” the authors said, describing Metro Manila’s three-to-four-hour daily commutes and how families must choose between cramped housing near work or distant homes that steal time away from childcare.

At the same time, poorer households continue to face barriers to fertility regulation despite improvements in access to family planning services following the Reproductive Health Act of 2012.
 
Rethinking how the country supports families

With fertility now below replacement level and the population expected to age over time, the findings have implications for labour supply, social protection systems, and long-term fiscal sustainability.

The study suggests that policies aimed at supporting families may need to look beyond access to contraception alone and consider broader economic and social conditions that shape family decisions — including employment stability, affordable childcare, housing, and transport.

For many Filipino couples, the issue is no longer deciding how many children to have, but whether current economic conditions allow them to achieve that goal.